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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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